NEW DELHI — A deadly attack targeting tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir has pushed India and Pakistan closer to conflict, with both nations taking drastic diplomatic and trade actions, including closing the main border crossing, downgrading ties, and revoking visas for each other's nationals.

On Tuesday, 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, were killed near a popular tourist spot in Kashmir's Pahalgam region. Although Pakistan has denied involvement, a previously unknown militant group, Kashmir Resistance, claimed responsibility for the attack. The assault is being viewed by India as part of a wider effort to destabilize the region, with New Delhi blaming Pakistan for supporting the attackers.

This latest escalation brings India and Pakistan to the brink of war, with both countries accusing each other of provocations along their highly militarized border in the contested Kashmir region. The two nuclear-armed nations have fought multiple wars over Kashmir, which is divided between them but claimed by both.

Gunfire Exchanges and Escalating Tensions

Following the attack, reports emerged of an exchange of gunfire between Indian and Pakistani soldiers along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Indian army officials confirmed that Pakistani troops opened fire at an Indian position late Thursday, and Indian soldiers retaliated. Thankfully, no casualties were reported. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not confirmed the incident, stating that it was waiting for a formal confirmation from the military.

Both countries have a long history of blaming each other for initiating border skirmishes, and this new clash has only heightened fears of a larger military confrontation.

Core Dispute: Kashmir

The central issue driving the conflict remains Kashmir, a region divided between India and Pakistan but claimed by both nations. Armed insurgents in Kashmir, many of whom have support from Pakistan, have waged a decades-long battle for either the region’s integration with Pakistan or its independence. India accuses Pakistan of backing these insurgents, a charge Islamabad denies.

The violence has claimed thousands of lives, with civilians, militants, and government forces all suffering casualties over the years. The attack on Tuesday is another deadly chapter in the conflict.

India’s Retaliation and Pakistan’s Response

Following the attack, India announced a series of punitive measures against Pakistan. Diplomatic ties were downgraded, a vital water-sharing agreement was suspended, and all visas issued to Pakistani nationals were revoked. India also reduced the staff at its high commission in Pakistan and ordered a significant reduction in the number of Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi.

In response, Pakistan labeled India’s actions as "irresponsible" and retaliated by canceling visas for Indian nationals, halting all trade with India (including trade through third-party countries), and closing its airspace to Indian aircraft.
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Tensions Over Water Resources

One of the most concerning developments in the current escalation is India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, a vital water-sharing agreement signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank. The treaty governs the distribution of water from the Indus River system, which flows through both India and Pakistan.

Pakistan warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water would be considered an "act of war," as the Indus system is crucial for Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower sectors. Pakistan has repeatedly emphasized that the treaty is a binding international agreement with no provision for unilateral suspension. The suspension of this treaty could lead to severe water shortages, especially in the context of ongoing drought conditions in parts of Pakistan.

Simla Agreement at Risk

Pakistan also warned that it might suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement, which established the Line of Control (LoC) and called for bilateral negotiations to settle disputes, including those over Kashmir. The agreement, signed after the 1971 India-Pakistan war, has been a cornerstone of peace efforts between the two countries, but Pakistan has suggested that India’s recent actions could lead them to reconsider its validity.

Long History of Hostility

Despite sporadic peace talks, India and Pakistan have struggled to resolve their differences. The two countries have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir. The 1999 Kargil War, in which Pakistani soldiers and militants infiltrated Indian territory, and the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, blamed on Pakistan-based militants, are among the most significant conflicts. Additionally, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in which Pakistani militants killed 166 people, and the 2019 Pulwama bombing, which led to aerial strikes between the countries, have further fueled animosity.

Since the 2019 Pulwama bombing, tensions have remained high, with India revoking Kashmir's semi-autonomous status and imposing severe security measures, further limiting civil liberties and media freedom in the region.

The Risk of Nuclear Confrontation

Both India and Pakistan have nuclear arsenals, making their rivalry particularly dangerous. India conducted nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, and Pakistan followed with its own tests shortly thereafter. Over the years, both countries have developed significant nuclear capabilities, including advanced fighter jets, missile systems, and nuclear warheads.

The presence of these weapons has raised fears of a potential nuclear conflict, particularly given the frequent flare-ups along the heavily militarized LoC. With both countries expanding their nuclear arsenals and modernizing their military capabilities, the prospect of a devastating confrontation remains a grave concern for the international community.

As tensions continue to rise, there is growing international pressure for both sides to engage in dialogue and prevent further escalation. However, with each country blaming the other for the ongoing violence, the path to peace seems increasingly distant.


(Wafric News)